roduct: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2019 May 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 17-May 19 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 17-May 19 2019

            May 17     May 18     May 19
00-03UT        3          2          2
03-06UT        1          3          1
06-09UT        1          2          1
09-12UT        1          2          1
12-15UT        3          1          1
15-18UT        3          2          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        5 (G1)     2          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 17 May due to
anticipated CME arrival.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 17-May 19 2019

              May 17  May 18  May 19
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 17-May 19 2019

              May 17        May 18        May 19
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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