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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
Gregory Deyss | Lee Lofaso | Re: Iran |
May 26, 2019 10:00 AM * |
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On 25 May 2019, Lee Lofaso said the following... LL> Hello Greg, LL> LL> [..] LL> LL> >LL>You may not be aware of this, but Trump ordered 4 out of our 5 LL> >LL>aircraft carriers to enter inside the Persian Gulf, in an effort LL> >LL>to intimidate Iran. LL> > LL> >More of like message written in big block style letters, lets call it a LL> > strong persuasion that says Peace through Strength. LL> LL> That did not work out so well in Afghanistan, where we are still LL> stuck with no way to get out. That also did not work out so well LL> in Iraq, which continues to be a snake pit. We need another war LL> in that area of the world like we need a hole in the head. LL> LL> >LL>Iran does have missiles capable of sinking an aircraft carrier, LL> >LL>along with underwater torpedoes. What do you think the reaction LL> >LL>would be if just one of our aircraft carriers was hit, or sunk? LL> >LL>You are talking 5,000+ dead American sailors. LL> LL> >It would be suicidal to attack the U.S. forces. LL> LL> Osama bin Laden and his merry group of al-Qaeda did it for years. LL> GWB allowed him and his merry men to escape Afghanistan. Thank LL> goodness we had a man from Kenya who saved our ass by actually LL> having the balls to "terminate with extreme prejudice" that piece LL> of shit. Who said anything about going in there like a Dalek. LL> >It would be a mis-calulation, that would cost them their very existence. LL> > Iran would be nothing more then a memory. LL> LL> Would it? Jimmy Carter got our embassy personnel home safe and sound, LL> without resorting to war with Iran. How many American lives is Trump LL> willing to waste by going to war with Iran for no reason? This depends on the amount of stupidity that used by the Iranian Government. What happened with Obama or GWB, in the region - good or bad is one thing. It would be unwise for the Iranian Government to test Trump. Innocent lives will be lost on both sides. Many say or are downright clueless / U.S. has no right being there. The U.S. forces are there to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for shipping, mainly for oil for Asian countries. Even the hint of closing the strait causes world markets to jump. further reading What If Iran Were to Attempt a Strait Closure? Iran's closure of the Strait would not involve employing its naval forces to physically occupy the waterways in a conventional sense. Rather, it would make the Strait impassable utilizing an Anti-Access/Area-Denial strategy (A2/AD) strategy. For Iran, mines would form the centerpiece of this strategy to turn the choke point into a no-go zone. Afterwards, it can use land-based anti-ship missiles (ASMs) to prevent clearance operations or to directly target enemy warships and civilian shipping. Should Iranian leadership deem it necessary to deploy naval forces, the IRGC possesses a large fleet of small fast-attack craft. Though lightly armed, the craft can prove a menace to conventional warships, via the use of swarming tactics to overwhelm adversaries and employ hit-and-run attacks that are notoriously difficult to counter. On a higher level, Iran could target United States and allied military facilities in the region or even civilian population centers with ballistic missiles as a means of deterrence. The ability of the United States and its allies to re-open the Strait of Hormuz comes down to preparation. Should advance warning be received of an impending closure attempt, the forces of Central Command (CENTCOM) would mobilize and naval forces, particularly one or more aircraft carrier strike groups would be rushed to region to force Iran to alter its calculations or to intervene before it makes much progress in making the waterways impassible. Should the United States and its allies be caught off-guard, then the costs of re-opening the Strait could be exorbitant. For example, Gay and Kemp estimated the cost of a Hormuz mine-clearance operation to be $230.1 million. Even something as routine as maintaining two carrier strike groups (CSGs) on-station for a week was estimated to be $106 million. In the event of a more serious military confrontation, a 2017 RAND report calls for the deployment of, among other things, twenty-one Air Force fighter squadrons and four CSGs. It is more difficult to estimate human casualties, but these numbers make clear there are prohibitive up-front costs to a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, whether a full-blown shooting war erupts or not. However, for reasons outlined earlier, the likelihood of a surprise closure is remarkably low. The United States and its allies are well-aware of such a possibility and have been, for decades, well-prepared for the scenario. The military superiority of the United States and its allies all but ensures an overwhelming defeat for the Ayatollah's warriors. Most importantly, a surprise closure of the Strait acts to Iran's detriment, unless the strategic environment is such that Tehran feels its back is against the wall and has little to lose from such desperation. Threatening closure is more useful than attempting one, thus, absent exigent circumstances, Iran's leadership will always telegraph its intentions, if only to avoid a situation where they must choose between backing down and losing face or following through and hazard overwhelming defeat. Though risk of miscalculation remains, Iran has considerably dialed back on its hostile behavior in the Strait, while increasing its aggressive activities elsewhere. But if Tehran wants its threats to at least be taken seriously, it may need to again resort to maritime provocations against commercial shipping and the U.S. military. Iran's de-emphasizing of the Gulf in its strategy does not appear to be something that will last much longer. --- Mystic BBS v1.12 A43 2019/03/03 (Windows/64) * Origin: Capital Station BBS * telnet://csbbs.dyndns.org * (1:267/150) |
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