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Message   Gregory Deyss    Lee Lofaso   Re: Iran   May 26, 2019
 10:00 AM *  

On 25 May 2019, Lee Lofaso said the following...
 
 LL> Hello Greg,
 LL> 
 LL> [..]
 LL> 
 LL> >LL>You may not be aware of this, but Trump ordered 4 out of our 5
 LL> >LL>aircraft carriers to enter inside the Persian Gulf, in an effort
 LL> >LL>to intimidate Iran.
 LL> >
 LL> >More of like message written in big block style letters, lets call it a
 LL> > strong persuasion that says Peace through Strength.
 LL> 
 LL> That did not work out so well in Afghanistan, where we are still
 LL> stuck with no way to get out.  That also did not work out so well
 LL> in Iraq, which continues to be a snake pit.  We need another war
 LL> in that area of the world like we need a hole in the head.
 LL> 
 LL> >LL>Iran does have missiles capable of sinking an aircraft carrier,
 LL> >LL>along with underwater torpedoes.  What do you think the reaction
 LL> >LL>would be if just one of our aircraft carriers was hit, or sunk?
 LL> >LL>You are talking 5,000+ dead American sailors.
 LL> 
 LL> >It would be suicidal to attack the U.S. forces.
 LL> 
 LL> Osama bin Laden and his merry group of al-Qaeda did it for years.
 LL> GWB allowed him and his merry men to escape Afghanistan.  Thank
 LL> goodness we had a man from Kenya who saved our ass by actually
 LL> having the balls to "terminate with extreme prejudice" that piece
 LL> of shit.

Who said anything about going in there like a Dalek.

 LL> >It would be a mis-calulation, that would cost them their very existence.
 LL> > Iran would be nothing more then a memory.
 LL> 
 LL> Would it?  Jimmy Carter got our embassy personnel home safe and sound,
 LL> without resorting to war with Iran.  How many American lives is Trump
 LL> willing to waste by going to war with Iran for no reason?

This depends on the amount of stupidity that used by the Iranian Government.

What happened with Obama or GWB, in the region - good or bad is one thing.

It would be unwise for the Iranian Government to test Trump.

Innocent lives will be lost on both sides. 

Many say or are downright clueless /  U.S. has no right being there.

The U.S. forces are there to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz remains open
for shipping, mainly for oil for Asian countries.
Even the hint of closing the strait causes world markets to jump. 

further reading 

What If Iran Were to Attempt a Strait Closure?

Iran's closure of the Strait would not involve employing its naval forces to
physically occupy the waterways in a conventional sense. Rather, it would make
the Strait impassable utilizing an Anti-Access/Area-Denial strategy (A2/AD)
strategy. For Iran, mines would form the centerpiece of this strategy to turn
the choke point into a no-go zone. Afterwards, it can use land-based anti-ship
missiles (ASMs) to prevent clearance operations or to directly target enemy
warships and civilian shipping. Should Iranian leadership deem it necessary to
deploy naval forces, the IRGC possesses a large fleet of small fast-attack
craft. Though lightly armed, the craft can prove a menace to conventional
warships, via the use of swarming tactics to overwhelm adversaries and employ
hit-and-run attacks that are notoriously difficult to counter. On a higher
level, Iran could target United States and allied military facilities in the
region or even civilian population centers with ballistic missiles as a means
of deterrence.

The ability of the United States and its allies to re-open the Strait of
Hormuz comes down to preparation. Should advance warning be received of an
impending closure attempt, the forces of Central Command (CENTCOM) would
mobilize and naval forces, particularly one or more aircraft carrier strike
groups would be rushed to region to force Iran to alter its calculations or
to intervene before it makes much progress in making the waterways
impassible. Should the United States and its allies be caught off-guard, then
the costs of re-opening the Strait could be exorbitant.

For example, Gay and Kemp estimated the cost of a Hormuz mine-clearance
operation to be $230.1 million. Even something as routine as maintaining two
carrier strike groups (CSGs) on-station for a week was estimated to be $106
million. In the event of a more serious military confrontation, a 2017 RAND
report calls for the deployment of, among other things, twenty-one Air Force
fighter squadrons and four CSGs. It is more difficult to estimate human
casualties, but these numbers make clear there are prohibitive up-front costs
to a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, whether a full-blown shooting war erupts
or not.

However, for reasons outlined earlier, the likelihood of a surprise closure
is remarkably low. The United States and its allies are well-aware of such a
possibility and have been, for decades, well-prepared for the scenario. The
military superiority of the United States and its allies all but ensures an
overwhelming defeat for the Ayatollah's warriors. Most importantly, a surprise
closure of the Strait acts to Iran's detriment, unless the strategic
environment is such that Tehran feels its back is against the wall and has
little to lose from such desperation. Threatening closure is more useful than
attempting one, thus, absent exigent circumstances, Iran's leadership will
always telegraph its intentions, if only to avoid a situation where they must
choose between backing down and losing face or following through and hazard
overwhelming defeat.

Though risk of miscalculation remains, Iran has considerably dialed back on
its hostile behavior in the Strait, while increasing its aggressive
activities elsewhere. But if Tehran wants its threats to at least be taken
seriously, it may need to again resort to maritime provocations against
commercial shipping and the U.S. military. Iran's de-emphasizing of the Gulf in
its strategy does not appear to be something that will last much longer.

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