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ACUS48 KWNS 060843
SWOD48
SPC AC 060842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2019

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance during the Day 4-8 period is not in very good agreement
this cycle, especially beyond Day 4/Friday. On Friday, a cold front
will extend from the Upper Midwest vicinity into the mid-South and
eastward off the mid-Atlantic coast. Thunderstorms will be possible
in the vicinity of the front, as well as across parts of the
northern/central Plains in moist, upslope flow regime as shortwave
impulses migrate southeast downstream of the western upper trough.
Some strong to severe storms are possible, though details are too
uncertain at this time to include severe probs.

Beyond Day 4, predictability is low given large differences in
forecast guidance. It appears likely that the western upper ridge
will shift eastward, becoming centered over the Plains through the
weekend. In the mean, northern stream flow will become more
progressive, and severe potential appears most likely from the
northern High Plains into the Great Lakes vicinity and possibly into
the Northeast by the end of the period. However, timing and
intensity of features which could support organized convection
varies greatly in forecast guidance and predictability is too low to
include severe probs.

..Leitman.. 08/06/2019


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