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ACUS02 KWNS 060559
SWODY2
SPC AC 060558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2019

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WI...SOUTHEAST MN...EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and locally damaging
wind gusts across portions of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday.
Additional strong thunderstorms may produce areas of strong wind
gusts across portions of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Upper Midwest Vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough will track southeast from the northern
Plains to the upper Great Lakes in strong northwesterly deep-layer
flow. A warm and moist (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) boundary layer
beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will result in a moderately
unstable airmass ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front.
Forecast soundings indicate long, straight hodographs with 25-35 kt
effective shear in the strongest profiles. This environment should
support marginal supercells capable of large hail and locally
damaging wind gusts with the strongest cells.

...Central Plains to the Mid-MO Valley Vicinity...

Further southwest, the severe threat becomes more unclear. Some
guidance suggests morning convection will be ongoing across parts of
KS/MO and may inhibit severe potential through peak heating.
Convection is expected to develop over higher terrain of CO and
eastern WY, but warm midlevels and weakening northwesterly flow with
westward extent should limit severe potential across eastern CO and
western KS. As the surface cold front surges southeast across the
Upper Midwest, it will become more nebulous across NE.
East/southeasterly low level flow will transport moisture northwest
across KS/NE and pockets of moderate to strong instability are
forecast. A conditional threat for large hail and damaging wind
gusts is possible, and is dependent on evolution of possible morning
convection, eventual boundary locations and other mesoscale
processes that are not being resolved well between various guidance
at this time.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...

An upper trough will pivot eastward on Wednesday, spreading 30-40 kt
midlevel southwesterly flow across the region. Surface dewpoints in
the mid 60s to low 70s will be transported northward across the
Piedmont of NC/VA into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong heating
through this corridor will result in moderate to strong instability
and thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain during the early
afternoon. As convection spreads eastward, some guidance suggests
upscale growth is possible, with one or more line segments tracking
across the region. Effective shear is somewhat marginal, around 25
kt, and midlevel lapse rates modest. But higher PW values and
pockets of steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for storm
organization along outflows and areas of damaging wind will be
possible. At this time, its still unclear where greater potential
will develop and will maintain Marginal probs at this time, though
upgrades could be needed in subsequent updates if current trends
continue.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     15%     - Slight

..Leitman.. 08/06/2019

$$


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