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ACUS11 KWNS 052240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052240
NEZ000-SDZ000-060015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1648
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019

Areas affected...Extreme southwest SD...Northern NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052240Z - 060015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell may persist into early evening with
a large hail threat. Watch issuance is not anticipated for this
threat due to limited coverage.

DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell that developed over the Black
Hills is propagating south-southeastward toward the northern NE
Panhandle. Large-scale ascent is largely absent across this region,
so there is some uncertainty regarding the longevity of this storm
as it moves away from the Black Hills. However, MLCINH has largely
eroded downstream of this cell, and moderate instability/shear will
be conditionally supportive of supercell maintenance into early
evening, before the onset of diurnal cooling/stabilization later
this evening.

The primary threat should be large hail into early evening, but
given the isolated nature of the threat, watch issuance is not
anticipated.

..Dean/Thompson.. 08/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43540340 43660305 43570266 43140242 42610241 42440309
            42790353 43330345 43540340



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