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ACUS11 KWNS 051944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051943
IAZ000-052145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019

Areas affected...northern Iowa and adjacent southwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 051943Z - 052145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue
developing/spreading southeastward across portions of northern Iowa
and vicinity, along with attendant severe potential.  WW issuance is
likely, within the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows convection developing over
southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, within a moderately
unstable airmass (2000 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) along and
ahead of the advancing cold front.  This trend is expected to
continue over the next few hours, with storms spreading
southeastward with time.  Given the thermodynamic environment, and
coupled with veering/increasing flow with height, organized/severe
storms are expected to emerge from within the developing zone of
convection.  As such, WW issuance will likely be needed in the next
hour or so.

..Goss/Dial.. 08/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42309558 43379498 43389283 41939230 41879516 42309558



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