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AWUS01 KWNH 052328
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-060527-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0711
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
728 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2019

Areas affected...Upper Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052327Z - 060527Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are clustering across
southern MN and west-central WI.  Hourly rain totals to 2" with
local amounts to 4" are expected through 05z.

Discussion...A broadening area of showers and thunderstorms, with
some showing backbuilding character, are massing across southern
MN and west-central WI near and ahead of a front.  Precipitable
water values of 1.6-1.8" exist here per GPS data.  Convergent
inflow at 850 hPa is 20-30 kts out of the west-southwest, which is
importing ML CAPE values of 2500-4000 J/kg.  Effective bulk shear
of 25-35 kts is helping to organize the activity.  Hourly rain
totals to 2" are being sampled by radar data, which appears
reasonable based on the moisture and instability present.

The mesoscale guidance has a reasonable idea for expectations over
the next several hours based on recent radar imagery.
Thunderstorms should grow in coverage over the next couple of
hours as they move into a region of greater instability, moving to
the east-southeast (blend of the forward propagation vectors and
1000-500 hPa thickness pattern) across northeast IA and southwest
WI before accelerating thereafter once they clear the bulk of the
instability pool towards the end of the MPD period.  Some
non-traditional training could occur along a west-northeast to
east-southeast axis due to the directional wind shear present.
The mesoscale guidance advertises local amounts in the 3-4" range
which appears reasonable.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   44769038 44068882 42978888 42009129 42259355
            43139499 43889496 44519222


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