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ACUS11 KWNS 052314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052314
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019

Areas affected...southeast Minnesota...central and southern
Wisconsin...northern Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553...554...

Valid 052314Z - 060115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553, 554
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds and hail continues
across the watch area, but is expected to wane later this evening as
storms approach eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...Numerous storms currently stretch from southern MN into
central WI, along the cold front and near various outflow
boundaries. Surface analysis still shows an axis of higher theta-e
extending from northeast IA into central WI ahead of the storms,
which are shifting southeastward in aggregate.

As the upper trough continues to move northeast of the area and the
cold front approaches, low-level winds will veer with time. This may
reduce deep-layer shear, with storm mode trending away from
cellular. However, speeds will remain in the 30-35 kt range around
850 mb, which may aid wind gust potential.

Farther downstream of these storms from eastern IA into southern WI
and northern IL, the air mass is less unstable. While some degree of
warm advection will persist this evening given the westerly 850 mb
winds, the loss of upper support and heating suggest a weakening
trend. Therefore at this time, additional watches are not
anticipated, but could be needed if outflow/wind potential organizes
more than expected.

..Jewell.. 08/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42039310 42609433 43039451 43379456 43769431 44099337
            44449245 44799087 44868974 44708872 44428788 43888757
            43338775 42908901 42639001 42469053 42169175 42039226
            42039310



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