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ACUS11 KWNS 051818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051818
WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-052015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1646
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019

Areas affected...parts of central and northern Wisconsin...southern
Minnesota...and adjacent northern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 051818Z - 052015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential is forecast to gradually increase across
the discussion area, on the southern fringe of ongoing convection.
Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of thunderstorms moving
east across western Upper Michigan and northern Wisconsin, while
additional storms are increasing in coverage along the southern
fringe of the ongoing band -- and westward along remnant outflow
over southern Minnesota.

The airmass ahead of the storms/convective outflow continues to
heat/destabilize, with objective analysis showing 2000 to 3000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE -- in line with the 17Z special RAOB from MPX.

Latest VWPs, and the MPX RAOB, show low-level southerly/
southwesterly flow veering to northwesterly aloft, and increasing
40-plus knots at mid levels.  Resulting shear is supportive of
organized/long-lived storms, and is contributing to an
intense/long-lived updraft which moved through the Minneapolis metro
area and has produced hail to tennis-ball size.

As storms continue to increase -- and likely organize eventually
into a south/southeastward-moving MCS, risk for severe weather will
likewise ramp up.  As such, WW issuance will become increasingly
likely over the next hour or so.

..Goss/Dial.. 08/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   44119575 44669512 45139286 45189066 45848923 45368740
            44098788 43668896 43099422 44119575



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