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ACUS02 KWNS 051729
SWODY2
SPC AC 051728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms posing both a large hail and damaging
wind threat may develop across parts of the northern and central
Plains on Tuesday.

...Northern/Central Plains...
A belt of 30-45 kt mid-level northwesterly flow will remain across
parts of the northern/central Plains on Tuesday between upper
ridging over the Four Corners region and upper troughing over the
Great Lakes and Canada. Although mid-level forcing mechanisms will
remain nebulous, there will probably be convective initiation along
the ND/SD by peak afternoon heating as a reinforcing cold front
moves southeastward across the northern Plains. Other more isolated
storms may also develop farther southward in NE. A narrow corridor
of upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints should exist across
parts of SD into NE, with drier/cooler air present farther east into
MN/IA due to prior convection and frontal passage. Moderate to
strong instability (MLCAPE 2000-3500+ J/kg) is forecast to develop
in a narrow northwest-southeast oriented corridor across
western/central SD into NE as strong diurnal heating occurs and
mid-level lapse rates steepen. Effective bulk shear values of 40-50
kt will likely favor isolated supercells with initial development,
with both a large hail and damaging wind threat as they move
southeastward through the late afternoon and early evening. The
potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters
remains unclear, but the damaging wind threat would potentially
increase into NE Tuesday evening if a linear mode became dominant.

...Mid MS Valley into the OH Valley and Northeast...
Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the eastern
CONUS on Tuesday. A couple of minor perturbations embedded within
this larger trough should develop east-southeastward across parts of
the Northeast into the OH Valley, and over portions of the mid MS
Valley through the period. These features in combination with a
surface cold front moving across these regions will likely foster at
least scattered storms along and ahead of the front by Tuesday
afternoon. Most guidance suggests mid-level flow will generally
remain in the 20-30 kt range, which will probably tend to limit
effective bulk shear and potential for substantial storm
organization. Still, some potential for upscale growth into several
clusters/bowing line segments is evident in short-term guidance, and
this seems reasonable given the linear low-level forcing of the
front.

Surface dewpoints are expected to be relatively greater across the
mid MS Valley into parts of the OH Valley, generally in the upper
60s to lower 70s, and should decrease with northeastward extent into
the Northeast. As diurnal heating occurs, instability should quickly
increase ahead of the front, with the greatest values of MLCAPE
(2000-3000+ J/kg) likely across parts of MO into IL/IN. Strong/gusty
winds producing isolated wind damage appear to be the main threat
with any storms that form in this environment. This wind threat
should diminish with southward and eastward extent by late Tuesday
evening with a gradual reduction in instability due to the loss of
daytime heating.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     15%     - Slight

..Gleason.. 08/05/2019

$$


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