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ACUS48 KWNS 050900
SWOD48
SPC AC 050859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 5...
The medium-range models are in relatively good agreement on Thursday
with an upper-level trough located from the lower Great Lakes
southward to the Eastern Seaboard.  The models have northwest
mid-level flow from the northern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. This overall pattern remains similar on Friday as the
upper-level trough moves further offshore into the Atlantic. At the
surface on Thursday and Friday, a cold front is forecast to be
located from eastern parts of the central Plains eastward into the
Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this
corridor in the afternoon and evening on Thursday and again on
Friday. A few storms will also be possible in the High Plains. The
greatest chance of isolated severe storms both days would be from
north-central Kansas into western Nebraska and the western Dakotas
where model consensus is the greatest concerning convective
development.

...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
Model forecasts continue to be in reasonable agreement concerning
the mid-level pattern on Saturday. An upper-level ridge is forecast
to move into the northern High Plains with northwest mid-level flow
in place from the Upper Mississippi Valley southeastward to the
Appalachians. The upper-level ridge is forecast to move slowly
eastward toward the Great Lakes by Monday. It appears that a severe
threat could develop in the wake of the ridge on Sunday and Monday
as an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains. Due to an
increasing spread among the model solutions late in the day 4 to 8
period especially concerning the distribution of instability,
predictability is quite low at this time.

..Broyles.. 08/05/2019


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