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ACUS03 KWNS 050723
SWODY3
SPC AC 050722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal severe threat will be
possible on Wednesday across parts of the north-central states and
Northeast.

...North-central States...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move southeastward into Wisconsin, southern Minnesota
and central Nebraska by afternoon. Surface dewpoints ahead of the
front in the lower 70s F should result in moderate instability
developing along and just south of the front. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the late afternoon along parts of the
front from Upper Michigan west-southwestward into eastern South
Dakota. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear
should be enough for at least isolated damaging wind gusts and hail.
At this point, it appears that a severe threat sufficient for a
slight risk will be possible. However, uncertainty as to the area
with the greatest threat is too great to issue a slight risk at this
time.

Further south across Kansas, a corridor of moderate to strong
instability is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorm
development will be possible from southern Nebraska
south-southeastward across the eastern half of Kansas along the
eastern edge of the strongest instability. Marginally severe wind
gusts and hail are forecast be the primary threats.

...Northeast...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper
Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday. At the
surface, a pre-frontal trough should be in place from the Carolinas
into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm development
is expected along the pre-frontal trough and near a front further
west. A marginal severe threat will be possible with storms that
develop in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, that
corridor is forecast to be from eastern Pennsylvania northeastward
into western New England. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be
possible during the mid to late afternoon as low-level lapse rates
become steepest.

..Broyles.. 08/05/2019

$$


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