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ACUS02 KWNS 041725
SWODY2
SPC AC 041724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2019

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from Nebraska and Iowa into
southern Minnesota and Wisconsin on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the Four Corners.  Over the
north-central U.S., low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move
through the persistent northwesterly flow aloft.  A broad, weak
500mb trough located near the Appalachians will very slowly move
eastward.  In the low levels, a cold front will likely extend from
far northeast Ontario southwestward through the MN Arrowhead and
central MN to a low over south-central SD early Monday morning.  The
front will move southeastward and to Lower MI, the mid MS Valley,
and the central Plains by early Tuesday morning.

...Central Plains...Upper Midwest...Upper Great Lakes...
Not much change for this forecast update.  Although scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible over southern MN during the
morning, renewed storm development is likely along the front or
associated outflow during the afternoon.  Models are in good
agreement in depicting a moist/destabilizing airmass ahead of the
front, with dewpoints likely in the upper 60s/low 70s.  Relatively
warm mid-level temperatures aloft will keep lapse rates modest but
the ample low-level moisture will still support moderate buoyancy,
with MLCAPE likely over 2000 J/kg, especially in eastern NE and IA.
The EC model indicates perhaps the strongest belt of mid-level flow
will overspread IA with 25-40kt effective shear favorable for storm
organization.  Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front
during the afternoon and evening.  Large hail and severe gusts are
the risks expected with activity during the afternoon into the early
evening with the severe risk transitioning to primarily wind during
the evening as storm outflow becomes more widespread and as bowing
segments evolve.

...Central/Northern High Plains...
Moist post-frontal upslope flow will help destabilize the boundary
layer as strong heating occurs.  The eastern periphery of steep
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate buoyancy.  Forcing
provided by a combination of moist upslope flow and convergence
along the lee trough or a subtle, low-amplitude shortwave trough is
expected to result in convective initiation.  Vertical shear will
support a few severe storms.  Due to uncertainty in coverage, will
maintain 5-percent severe probabilities this outlook.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
A broad shortwave trough is expected to progress eastward over the
Appalachians on Monday.  Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
forecast to develop coincident with the diurnal heating cycle.  Weak
shear will result in multicells.  Although localized strong gusts
are possible, uncertainty related to prior day convective influences
will preclude low-severe probabilities at this time.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     15%     - Slight

..Smith.. 08/04/2019

$$


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