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ACUS48 KWNS 040841
SWOD48
SPC AC 040840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2019

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that upper ridging will
extend from the southern High Plains into the Pacific Northwest at
the beginning of the extended period (12Z Wednesday). This expansive
upper ridge is expected to gradually shift eastward, with the ridge
eventually extending from the southern Plains into the Canadian
Prairie Provinces on D7/Saturday. As this eastward shift of the
ridge occurs, upper troughing across the eastern CONUS will
gradually lose amplitude and the enhanced northwesterly flow aloft
will shift from the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest to the
Great Lakes and Northeast.

Ample low-level moisture and enhanced northwesterly flow across the
northern/central Plains on D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday support a
severe thunderstorm risk. However, impetus for convective initiation
will likely be remnant surface boundaries, which result in low
predictability and too much uncertainty to outlook any areas.

..Mosier.. 08/04/2019


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