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FOUS30 KWBC 040818
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2019

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Aug 04 2019 - 12Z Mon Aug 05 2019

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTHERN ROCKIES..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...Southwest...Southern High Plains...Southern Rockies...
No significant changes to the large scale pattern over the
Southwest as the upper high remains centered near the four
corners. Above average pw values 1.5 to 2 standard deviations
above the mean will support potential for additional locally heavy
and isolated excessive rainfall in what will likely be another
round of widespread scattered convection.  The marginal risk area
was not changed appreciably from the previous issuance...tracing
out the area of the higher HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1
and 2"+ rainfall amounts this period.

...Portions of the Southeast...
Two marginal risk areas were added across portions of the
Southeast for the upcoming day 1 period.  One is across northeast
Mississippi...northern Alabama and a small portion of southwest
Tennessee. These areas have lowered ffg values from locally heavy
rain that occurred over the past 24 hours.  The upper trof axis is
forecast to remain oriented from the Upper Ohio Valley into the
Tennessee Valley and Central Gulf Coast.  This will support
potential for additional convection across the above mentioned
regions that received heavy rains over the past 24 hours.  HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 2"+ amounts are high across this
area...generally in the 50-70%+ range.

The other marginal risk area over the Southeast was placed over
far northeast Florida...southeast to coastal Georgia into much of
coastal South Carolina. Similar to areas upstream...this region
will be in a favorable place to the east of the above mentioned
upper trof axis to have potential for active convection. Hi res
model consensus is for heavy rains across these areas with HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 2 and 3"+ amounts high..70-90% for
2"...50-80% for 3" and a few 20%+ area for 5"+ amounts.

...Coastal Southeast Florida...
A marginal risk was maintained over coastal southeast Florida for
isolated urban runoff issues in the 1800 utc Sunday to 0000 utc
Monday time frame.  A narrow axis of much above average pw values
2 to 3 standard deviations above the mean expected to persist
across South Florida Sunday with convection enhancing this
afternoon into early evening in this axis.  HREF neighborhood
probabilities for 2 and 3"+ amounts are high...80-90% and 70-80%
respectively...with even a few 20% probabilities for 5"+ totals.
The marginal risk area was confined to the urbanized areas of
southeast coastal Florida.

...Southeast North Dakota...northeast South Dakota...west central
Minnesota...
A surface frontal boundary dropping southeast across the Northern
Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley will become the focus for
convection Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening and Sunday night.
While there is a large spread in qpf details among the latest 0000
utc models...there is consensus for moderate to locally heavy
precip totals in an axis of increasing instability Sunday
afternoon on...mu-cape values 2000-2500+ j/kg.  The previous
marginal risk area was expanded to cover the range of model
solutions and lower ffg value areas.

Oravec


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.t...
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.t...
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.t...


$$




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