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ACUS03 KWNS 040728
SWODY3
SPC AC 040728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2019

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains.

...Synopsis...
Overall upper pattern is expected to remain relatively stagnant on
Tuesday, with a ridge extending from the Four Corners into the
Pacific Northwest over the western CONUS and broad troughing across
the eastern CONUS. At the surface, medium-range guidance suggests a
low will be centered over central SD early Tuesday, along a stalled
cold front extending across SD early. These surface features are
expected to remain in place while another cold front moves through
the northern Plains Tuesday evening. Widespread thunderstorm
coverage is expected from the OH Valley into the Northeast but
modest vertical shear should minimize severe potential. Severe
thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and
central Plains.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Air mass across the region will likely be characterized by ample
low-level moisture, with afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s. This
moisture combined with diurnal heating should result in air mass
destabilization and moderate buoyancy. Southerly surface winds
beneath enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to
moderate to strong vertical shear. The overall air mass is expected
to support severe thunderstorms.

Main uncertainty is where convective initiation will take place.
Current medium-range guidance suggests convergence near the surface
low and front will result in convective initiation, with the
resulting storms growing upscale and moving southeastward. However,
run-to-run variability on the location of the surface low and
quality of the low-level moisture introduces forecast uncertainty.
This uncertainty precludes higher than 5% probabilities with this
outlook. Higher probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent
outlooks as the confidence in the location of convective initiation
increases.

..Mosier.. 08/04/2019

$$


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