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ACUS02 KWNS 040556
SWODY2
SPC AC 040555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2019

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Middle Missouri River
Valley into the Upper Midwest on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging will remain centered over the Four Corners
on Monday. Some dampening of the northeastern periphery of this
upper ridge (i.e. over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest) will
likely occur as low-amplitude shortwave troughs move through the
persistent northwesterly flow aloft. Over the eastern CONUS, a
shortwave trough initially extending from the central OH Valley to
the central Gulf Coast progresses slowly eastward. The progression
of this shortwave will help maintain broadly cyclonic flow aloft
over the eastern CONUS.

At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from far northeast
Ontario southwestward through the MN Arrowhead and central MN to a
low over south-central SD early Monday morning. Expectation is for
this front to push southeastward throughout the day, reaching Lower
MI, the mid MS Valley, and the central Plains by early Tuesday
morning.

...Central Plains...Upper Midwest...Upper Great Lakes...
A moist air mass will be in place ahead of the approaching front,
with dewpoints likely in the upper 60s/low 70s during the early
afternoon. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures aloft will keep
lapse rates modest but the ample low-level moisture will still
support moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely over 2000 J/kg. The
highest instability is anticipated to occur across IA and eastern
NE. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will increase across
the region as a shortwave trough moves through Ontario, with a
resulting increase in vertical shear.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the
afternoon and evening. Environment supports organized storms and,
given the linear forcing, an initially cellular development will
likely transition quickly to bowing line segments. Large hail and
strong wind gusts are the primary threats.

...Central/Northern High Plains...
Moist post-frontal upslope flow will help destabilize the air mass
amidst diurnal heating. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute
to moderate buoyancy. Forcing provided by a combination of moist
upslope flow and convergence along the lee trough or a subtle,
low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to result in convective
initiation. Strengthening vertical shear will be strong enough to
support a few severe storms. Coverage uncertainty precludes higher
probabilities with this forecast, but increased probabilities may be
needed in future outlooks.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
A broad shortwave trough is expected to progress eastward off the
East Coast on Monday. This shortwave will likely move into the
Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic during peak heating, resulting in numerous
thunderstorms. Weak shear will preclude an organized severe risk,
with short-lived multicells as the predominant storm mode.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     15%     - Slight

..Mosier.. 08/04/2019

$$


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