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AWUS01 KWNH 032247
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-040400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0710
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Areas affected...Central to Southeast AZ...Southwest NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032245Z - 040400Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the evening hours. Slow cell motions and locally
heavy rainfall rates will continue to foster localized flash
flooding concerns for any burn scar areas and dry washes.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows scattered slow-moving areas of
showers and thunderstorms from the western and southern flanks of
the Mogollon Rim southeast down across southeast AZ, and into
southwest NM. The activity continues to develop in relation to
strong diurnal heating/surface-based instability and relatively
deep monsoonal moisture. Much of the moisture concentration again
has been noted up in the 500/300 mb layer, but some gradual
moistening of the sub-500 mb layer has been noted in CIRA-LPW data
sets, and this had been advertised by the consensus of the 12Z
model guidance.

Going into the evening hours, scattered areas of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to focus across the MPD threat area,
from central to southeast AZ and into southwest NM. The activity
will tend to remain locally focused near areas of higher terrain
and also where low-level outflow boundaries collide and generate
new convection.

Expect as much as 2 to 3 inches of rain on a storm-scale level
with the more persistent and stronger convective cores. Some flash
flooding concerns will continue as a result, with the more
sensitive areas again focused over or near any burn scar areas,
and dry washes.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36671310 36661261 36171244 35591245 34931215
            34431144 33681033 33220915 33100843 33250769
            33130735 32670741 32050786 31740833 31330868
            31190944 31151050 31261129 31321164 31681218
            32061214 32351171 32701105 33171108 33921211
            34371260 35041310 35931341


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