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ACUS02 KWNS 031731
SWODY2
SPC AC 031730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm are possible across portions of the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday with isolated damaging wind and
large hail the main threats.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough now over southern Alberta will move east southeast
along the northern periphery of an upper ridge anchored over the
southern Rockies. A mid-level jet along the southern periphery of
the upper trough will move through ND Sunday afternoon and into
northern MN Sunday evening. This trough will be accompanied by a
cold front that will move southeast through the northern Plains and
MN and by late Sunday afternoon the front should extend from extreme
northwest MN southwest through southern ND and northeast WI.

...North Dakota and northern South Dakota through northern
Minnesota...

The pre-frontal warm sector will be characterized by mid to upper
60s F near-surface dewpoints, and a plume of 7-7.5 C/km mid-level
lapse rates will advect into this region supporting 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon.
Model consensus indicates a few storms may be ongoing along the
front over extreme northeast ND or northwest MN. Additional early
storms will be possible over southwest ND in association with an
upper vorticity maximum moving along northern periphery of the upper
ridge. However, most of the warm sector is expected to remain capped
to surface-based storms until at least mid afternoon when additional
activity will likely develop along the cold front and in association
with the progressive vorticity maximum. Winds aloft will increase
with the approach of the mid-level jet supporting 35-45 kt effective
bulk shear. A few supercells will be possible, with some storms
eventually evolving into line segments or clusters promoting a
threat for damaging wind and large hail from late afternoon into the
evening.

...Northern High Plains region...

Some storms may be ongoing from southwest ND into northwest SD and
northeast WY in association with the previously mentioned vorticity
maximum. South of this activity through western SD into northwest
NE, the atmosphere will likely become moderately unstable supported
by 50s to low 60s F dewpoints, steep mid-level lapse rates and
diabatic heating of the surface layer. Additional storms are
expected to develop during the afternoon over the higher terrain,
the lee trough and possibly along any boundaries associated with
ongoing convection. Wind profiles with 30-40 kt effective bulk shear
will support some organized structures including supercells, but
storms may be somewhat high based with isolated damaging wind and
large hail the main threats.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     15%     - Slight

..Dial.. 08/03/2019

$$


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