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AWUS01 KWNH 031706
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-032200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0706
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Southwest MO...Northeast
OK...Northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031700Z - 032200Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will develop and
expand in coverage over the next couple of hours. Locally very
heavy rainfall is possible which may result in some instances of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 visible satellite imagery is
showing increased vertical development of CU/TCU over areas of
southeast KS, southwest MO, northeast KS and northwest AR in
vicinity of a weak surface trough. This trough axis, albeit it
weak, is helping to focus at least modestly convergent low-level
flow within an otherwise very moist and increasingly unstable
boundary layer. Already there is a pool of MLCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 j/kg along the trough axis, with the aid of increased
diurnal heating and surface dewpoints that are in the low to mid
70s.

Radar imagery is already showing showers and thunderstorms
initiated and beginning to line up in a northwest/southeast
fashion from far southeast KS down into northwest AR, and over the
next couple of hours, this convection should expand a bit in
coverage with the aid of additional dirunal heating/surface-based
instability. The steering flow across the region is quite weak,
and this will allow the convective cells to be very slow-moving.
In general, there should be a tendency for the activity to
actually drop southwestward as the surface trough pushes a bit
deeper into northeast OK and with the help of shortwave energy
dropping south down toward the Red River Valley of the South.

PWATS across the region are anywhere from 1.8 to 2.0 inches which
will favor enhanced rainfall rates that may reach as high as 2.5
inches/hr, and especially with the moisture concentration seen in
the 850/500 mb layer per the 12Z KSGF RAOB sounding.

The latest HRRR guidance and members of the 12Z HREF suite,
support as much as 3 to 4 inches of rain locally going through
21Z. Some flash flooding will be possible as a result.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37729575 37719493 37179368 36039317 35099358
            35079473 35829521 36409562 36979676 37389690



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