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AWUS01 KWNH 031154
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-031653-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0705
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
753 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Areas affected...KS/OK/TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031153Z - 031653Z

Summary...Flash flooding will remain possible through the morning
hours, at least on a localized scale, from portions of far
southern KS into east central OK and far northern TX.

Discussion...A narrow axis of convection continues to move north
to south this morning from far southern KS, through east central
OK and into far northern TX. While activity has been training
along this north/south axis, it has generally remained
disorganized in nature. Cells have taken on more of a discrete
nature along this axis and have been quick moving, thus have not
really been able to establish a prolonged period of heavy rainfall
rates at any one location. The low level moisture convergence is
pretty good, but may not be quite as pronounced/compact as it has
been the past few nights, and instability is also more marginal.
Going forward over the next few hours, a shortwave currently near
the KS/OK border may help sustain convective activity, and
possibly result in a bit of an uptick in organization, as it drops
southward across OK through the morning. However, the competing
factors of marginal instability, and the typical diurnal cycle of
decreasing low level moisture transport, suggest that activity
will probably struggle to become too intense/organized.

Thus the most probable outcome through the morning is that
localized flash flooding will remain possible, especially over any
more susceptible locations, but more high end widespread flash
flooding appears less likely. The risk could expand into far
northern TX over the next couple hours, and overall would expect
the threat to wane by late morning. While not perfect, the 10z
HRRR appears to be the most reasonable piece of high resolution
guidance regarding this convective evolution through the morning
hours.

Chenard

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37229661 34999604 33719604 33099630 33189690
            34389704 35679700 36299711 37129732


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