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ACUS48 KWNS 030856
SWOD48
SPC AC 030855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough pattern is expected to
persist from D4/Tuesday through D6/Thursday. Enhanced northwesterly
flow aloft will exist between these two features. This northwesterly
flow pattern supports strong deep-layer shear and is favorable for
severe thunderstorms across the Plains and upper/mid MS Valley. 00Z
guidance show decent consensus for severe thunderstorms across the
central Plains into the Lower MO Valley on D5/Wednesday. However,
previous runs do not have the same signal and general run-to-run
variability has been high. Consequently, predictability is too low
to outlook an area.

Beginning D7/Friday, medium-range guidance suggests the upper ridge
shift back eastward over the southern Plains, pushing the
northwesterly flow aloft into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great
Lakes.

..Mosier.. 08/03/2019


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