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FOUS30 KWBC 030818
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 03 2019 - 12Z Sun Aug 04 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...South Central Oklahoma into North Central Texas...
A north to south axis of above average pw values will continue
over the Southern Plains on the eastern side of the Four Corners
upper high.  Shortwave energy dropping south in the mid to upper
level north to northwesterly flow over the Southern Plains will
support additional generally north to south oriented convection
from eastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas.  Early morning
activity oriented northwest to southeast over east central
Oklahoma may persist for a short time after 1200 utc prior to
weakening.  Concerns will be for additional activity to form in a
general north to south direction late Saturday afternoon over
eastern Oklahoma and drop south Saturday night into early Sunday
into north central Texas.  Not a lot of confidence in hi res
guidance handling of this convection..with these models having a
bias over the past few nights of being too slow to form the
convection and too slow to push it downstream to the south and
southeast.  There will be potential for training of cells in a
north to south or northwest to southeast direction from whatever
additional activity does form from late Saturday afternoon into
the early morning hours of Sunday.  In areas of training...hourly
rates of 2"+ possible.  FFG values are relatively high across
large portions of the Southern Plains...with only a slight risk
depicted for the training potential.

...Southwest...Southern High Plains...Southern Rockies...
The upper high center will remain over the Four Corners this
period with slow moving shortwaves rotating around its
peripheries.  Expect another round of widespread...potentially
slow moving scattered convection affecting northern to eastern
Arizona...much of New Mexico into south central Colorado.  The
previous marginal risk area was expanded slightly into far
southeast Arizona...far southwest New Mexico and eastward along
the NM/TX border. A slight risk area was also added across
portions of eastern NM where an axis of anomalous pw values...1 to
2 standard deviations above the mean will be sinking south in
association with post frontal easterly flow.  Upslope flow into
terrain from in the vicinity of LVS to ALM will support potential
for heavy totals.  These areas are also in an axis of relatively
low ffg values.

...Appalachians...
Widespread scatters diurnal convection will likely fire through
the Appalachians Saturday afternoon.  While confidence is low with
qpf details...there is potential for locally heavy rains and
isolated runoff issues.  A marginal risk area was maintained from
far north GA through western NC...Southwest to western VA...far
eastern WV...western MD...central to northeast PA into southeast
NY state. This area corresponds well with the axis of the higher
HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1, 2 and 3"+ precip day
1...with the greatest threat likely in the 1800 utc Saturday to
0000 utc Sunday time frame.

Oravec


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.t...
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.t...
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.t...


$$




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