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ACUS03 KWNS 030733
SWODY3
SPC AC 030733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Middle Missouri River
Valley into the Upper Midwest on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging is expected to remain in place over the
majority of the western CONUS on Monday. Cyclonic flow aloft is also
expected to remain in place across the eastern CONUS, reinforced by
a shortwave trough moving across the Mid-Atlantic. A stronger
shortwave is expected to cross Ontario, progressing quickly eastward
through the base of a low over the Hudson Bay.

At the surface, a low will move eastward just ahead of the Ontario
shortwave trough. An attendant cold front is expected to move
through the portions of the northern/central Plains, Upper Midwest,
and Lower Great Lakes.

...Northern/Central Plains...Upper Midwest...Upper Great Lakes...
A moist air mass will be in place across the region ahead of the
approaching cold front, with dewpoints likely in the upper 60s/low
70s. Strong heating and resultant boundary-layer mixing will help
push temperatures into the mid/upper 80s. Resulting thermodynamic
environment will be moderately buoyant with MLCAPE in excess of 2000
J/kg. Northwesterly flow aloft will increase from the
northern/central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes as a shortwave
trough moves through Ontario. This increased flow aloft will
strengthen vertical shear.

Expectation is for thunderstorms to develop along the front during
the afternoon and evening. Overall environment supports severe
thunderstorms, particularly from northeast NE across northern IA
into southern WI where the best overlap between instability and
vertical shear exists.

Farther west (across eastern WY and adjacent portions of western SD
and NE), at least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon, either from a combination of moist upslope
flow and convergence along the lee trough or a subtle, low-amplitude
shortwave trough. In either case, vertical shear is strong enough to
support organized storms and resulting severe threat.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
A broad shortwave trough is expected to progress eastward off the
East Coast on Monday. This shortwave will likely move into the
Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic during peak heating, resulting in numerous
thunderstorms. Weak shear will preclude an organized severe risk,
with short-lived multicells as the predominant storm mode.

..Mosier.. 08/03/2019

$$


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