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AWUS01 KWNH 030727
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-031200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0704
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2019

Areas affected...North Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030725Z - 031200Z

Summary...Thunderstorms may continue to affect north central
Oklahoma during the early morning hours, producing locally heavy
rainfall. Rain rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, if sustained for a
couple hours, may produce flash flooding.

Discussion...Although backbuilding convection continues to be
observed over north-central Oklahoma on IR satellite channels and
regional radars, the convection has thus far remained relatively
unfocused. This may be due to a lack of strong low-level
convergence. Therefore, although backbuilding is occurring with
the convection generally oriented parallel to the mean wind,
individual convective clusters have generally avoided tracking
over the same locations. And with a lack of strong low-level
focus, rain rates have generally been peaking closer to 1 in/hr
despite relatively strong elevated instability (2000+ j/kg MUCAPE)
and high PW values (2+ inches). Convective intensity may also be
hindered somewhat by a pocket of dry air situated near the OK-KS
border, evident on the GOES-16 Simple Water Vapor RGB.
Nevertheless, the mesoscale environment remains suited for
continued upstream development of new convection for at least
another few hours. The nose of a LLJ remains positioned close to
the central portion of the OK-KS border, near PNC. This is close
to the northern extent of convection as of 07Z. Additionally,
there is an upstream shortwave, evident in GOES-16 water vapor
imagery, over C KS. This digging wave would reach N OK around
12-14Z per an extrapolated motion, and convection would be likely
to begin waning around that time due to increasing subsidence
behind the wave and a climatologically less active time of the
diurnal cycle for convection. Therefore, a window of several hours
exists for continued backbuilding. Recent runs of the experimental
Warn-on Forecast System show very low probabilities of 2 in/hr
rain rates. Therefore, modest but still heavy rain rates around 1
in/hr would be more likely. This would be unlikely to lead to
flash flooding on short durations of 60 minutes or less, but if
backbuilding convection can be sustained in a corridor for several
hours flash flooding will be possible. Localized rainfall totals
could exceed 4 inches by 12Z.

Lamers

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37409729 37209665 36689614 35659558 34899591
            34919692 35509747 36379782 37059794


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