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AWUS01 KWNH 030320
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-030800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0703
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2019

Areas affected...South Central Kansas, Central and North Central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030319Z - 030800Z

Summary...Thunderstorms were beginning to develop around 10 PM CDT
in north central Oklahoma. The storms should become more numerous
and will align in a pattern that will cause them to repeatedly
affect some areas. This will likely lead to heavy rainfall and
flash flooding.

Discussion...Convection began to develop between 02Z and 03Z
across north central Oklahoma. In addition to gradually increasing
coverage and intensity on regional radars, GOES-16 IR satellite
and nighttime microphysics RGB indicated cooling cloud tops and
some signs of glaciation. Convection is expected to become more
organized into a NW-SE or NNW-SSE oriented band close to the deep
layer mean wind with time, and there is reasonably strong hi-res
model agreement on that. The development is occurring just north
of an instability max (MLCAPE 2000-2500 j/kg per RAP analysis) and
on the nose of SSW 20-25 knot 850mb flow. The major axis of the
LLJ and instability maximum were situated near the northwestern
edge of ongoing convective development, signaling some potential
for backbuilding as mature and decaying cells push further south
into Oklahoma. Indeed, multiple hi-res models forecast this type
of evolution, including recent runs of the experimental Warn-on
Forecast System. The 02Z WoFS run 1-hr PMM of composite
reflectivity is very close to the observed axis of convection at
03Z, with an eventual rainfall axis from near PNC to just
southeast of CQB. Given support for backbuilding and training, it
seems likely that a swath of heavy rainfall will occur tonight,
centered primarily on north central Oklahoma.

The environment is quite favorable for heavy rain rates. The 00Z
LMN sounding showed an overlap of strong instability (MLCAPE
approx. 2500 j/kg) and significant deep moisture (PW 2.23 inches).
This combination would usually support rain rates exceeding 2
inches per hour in strong, well-organized convection, and that
can't be ruled out in this case. The LMN sounding generally
confirms a pocket of higher PW also suggested by the CIRA blended
PW product over NC OK. That should make convection in the area
more efficient at rainfall production, and some places could
exceed 4 inches of rain in the next few hours. This would exceed
flash flood guidance across the area, and flash flooding appears
likely overnight in at least some portions of the area.

Lamers

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   37689825 37509699 36759595 35519568 34929640
            35219758 36289809 37149875


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