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ACUS11 KWNS 022337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022337
MTZ000-IDZ000-030130-
Mesoscale Discussion 1633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2019
Areas affected...central Idaho and southwest Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022337Z - 030130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and wind are possible into the
evening across portions of central Idaho and southwest Montana. A
watch issuance is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is moving over eastern
Oregon and into the northern Rockies helping to aid storm
development across the region. While instability is marginal with
ML/MUCAPE of 500-1000+ J/kg per mesoanalysis, effective bulk shear
values of 30-40 knots may be supportive of weaker supercells and
marginally severe hail. Longer, relatively straight hodographs also
indicate a threat for large hail and splitting storms, which has
been evident on KMSX.
According to mesoanalysis, the storms are likely elevated, although
surface-based storms are possible. With high LCLs (around 3km AGL)
and DCAPE values 1200+ J/kg per mesoanalysis, any surface-based
storm could produce strong outflow winds. Stronger elevated storms
could also produce strong enough downdrafts that reach the surface
as well. These winds may impact ongoing wildfires in the area. Given
the marginal severe threat, a watch issuance is unlikely.
..Nauslar/Thompson.. 08/02/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
LAT...LON 44091496 44491565 45631569 46811490 47081467 47491420
47491356 47171297 46711278 46201280 45601305 45061318
44651348 44321391 44091496
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