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AWUS01 KWNH 021937
FFGMPD
NEZ000-030135-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0702
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2019

Areas affected...Central NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021935Z - 030135Z

SUMMARY...Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the afternoon hours, which will continue to foster
concerns for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES visible satellite imagery continues
to show a small scale cluster of backbuilding convection over
parts of Custer and Valleys counties in central NE. The activity
remains focused east of a surface trough, but within a very moist
airmass and along a well-defined instability gradient. MLCAPE
values are on the order of 1500+ j/kg along the surface trough
axis. Additionlly, the convection is also focusing within an area
of 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear.

Over the next couple of hours, there will be the arrival of a
modest shortwave disturbance from the High Plains in conjunction
with the nose of a weak upper level jet core. Much of central NE
will tend to be in the left-exit region of the jet and this
coupled with moderate instability and an uptick in shear should
tend to favor additional convective organization over central NE
and in the vicinity of the current activity.

The PWAT environment across the region is conducive for enhanced
rainfall rates with values of around 1.75 inches. Already there
has been plenty of convection generating 2 to 3 inches/hr rainfall
rates, and any additional convection will be capable of similar
rates going through the afternoon hours.

The latest HRRR guidance suggests as much as an additional 3 to 4
inches of rain going through 00Z, with some isolated heavier
amounts possible considering the backbuilding nature of the
convective activity.

Based on this, additional areas of flash flooding will be likely
over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41799930 41789876 41629835 41519806 41209783
            40899814 40789873 40789962 40880009 41360026
            41609986


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