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AWUS01 KWNH 021033
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-021531-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0700
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
632 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2019

Areas affected...East Central Kansas into Northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021031Z - 021531Z

SUMMARY...Convection continues to train in a northwest to
southeasterly direction across east central Kansas Friday morning.
 Training likely to continue into this morning before weakening by
early afternoon.  In areas of training hourly rates of 1-3"+ and
totals of 4-6"+ possible.

DISCUSSION...This mesoscale precipitation discussion is an update
to mesoscale precipitation discussion #0699 expiring at 1040 UTC.
Training convection in northwest to southeasterly direction
continues this morning to the northeast of the stationary frontal
boundary stretching across the Southern Plains into the Lower
Mississippi.  PW values in this overrunning area remain well above
average...2+ standard deviations above the mean...supporting the
potential for very heavy to excessive precip totals in areas of
training.

While there is a strong models signal for heavy rains going into
the day on Friday...current hi res model depiction of this heavy
to excessive rainfall event is not good.  Comparison of the
simulated radars from the hi res guidance shows the arw...nmmb and
the nam conest too weak with the current well organized convection
and too slow to push it south.   The nam conest appears to be much
too far to the east and north across northeast Kansas.  The arw
and nmmb are better with respect to the longitude of convection
but are much too slow moving convection southward.  The hrrr from
0800 utc has a better handle on the current convection both in its
orientation and intensity...although it too is likely too far
northeast with the heaviest rainfall axis.  The 0800 utc hrrr does
indicate weakening by mid to late morning...but training potential
into mid morning.

There is expected to be weakening of this convection later this
morning into early afternoon with the typical diurnal decrease in
low level moisture transport, before activity re-fires again
tonight into early Saturday morning farther to the south across
southeast Kansas into northeast Oklahoma.  Prior to
that...training of convection will likely continue into this
morning with flash flooding likely in areas of training where
hourly rates of 1-3"+ and totals of 4-6"+ area possible.

Oravec/Chenard

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40659815 40649755 40339711 39609642 38679592
            38179582 37309588 36339622 36199672 36579699
            36959724 37389743 37959766 38279760 39079779
            39959822 40419844


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