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FOUS30 KWBC 020825
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2019

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Aug 02 2019 - 12Z Sat Aug 03 2019

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...Southeast Nebraska...east central Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...
There is a strong model signal for the upcoming day 1 time period
for a narrow axis of very heavy to excessive rainfall amounts
across eastern portions of the Central to Southern
Plains...stretching from southeast Nebraska...across eastern
Kansas and into northeast Oklahoma.  Early morning convection is
firing again to the northeast of the stationary frontal boundary
across portions of the Central to Southern Plains in the axis of
pw values 2+ standard deviations above the mean.  Hi res model
consensus is for this activity to train in a northwest to
southeasterly direction to the northeast of the stationary frontal
boundary across east central Kansas Friday...possibly weakening
late Friday afternoon before convection re-intensifies Friday
night into early Saturday across southeast Kansas into northeast
Oklahoma.  Training of cells in a northwest to southeast direction
will be a strong possibility...with hourly totals of 1-2"+ and
totals 4-6"+ in areas of training.  HREF neighborhood
probabilities show 60-90%+ for 2"+ amounts...40-60%+ for 3"+
amounts and 20-35% for 5"+ amounts in the moderate risk axis.  The
axis of the slight and moderate risk areas were adjusted westward
from the previous issuance by approximately 20-40 nm.  The axis of
the highest Excessive Rainfall probability is west of the observed
axis of heavy precip over the past 24 hours with the model
consensus suggesting less overlap with the next round of heavy
rains and the previous 24 hour heavy rain axis.

...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern Rockies...
Widespread scattered monsoonal convection likely on the western
peripheries of the Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies upper
high center from portions of the Southwest into the Southern
Rockies.  PW values will remain 1 to 2 standard deviations above
the mean this period across these areas...supporting potential for
locally heavy rains and isolated runoff issues.  The previous
marginal risk area over the Southern Rockies for this period was
expanded into the Southwest to cover the higher neighborhood
probabilities from the HREF for 1 and 2" 24 hour totals.  A well
defined area of 50-80% probabilities of 1"+ totals and area of
10-30% probabilities of 2"+ totals are encompassed by the marginal
risk area.

...Florida Peninsula into the coastal Southeast...
The upper trof over the Central Gulf of Mexico will continue to
transport tropical moisture across the Florida Peninsula into the
coastal Southeast day 1.  PW anomalies 2 to 3 standard deviations
above the mean expected to persist across these areas.  Mid to
upper level circulations on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico
trof will accentuate lift in this hi pw axis...supporting
potential widespread area of heavy rain.  Confidence is not great
with qpf details...but given the favorable large scale
pattern...there will be potential for isolated runoff
issues...especially in urbanized areas.  The previous marginal
risk area over the Florida Peninsula was expanded northeastward
into Northeast Florida and the coastal Southeast to cover the
model spread of heavy qpf solutions across these areas.

...Southern to Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic...
There were only some minor changes made to the previous marginal
risk area stretching across portions of the Southern to Central
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic.  A widespread region of
scattered convection again likely in the vicinity and north of the
stationary frontal boundary stretching from the Southern
Appalachians into the Southern Mid-Atlantic.  HREF neighborhood
probabilities for 1 and 2"+ amounts are high across these region.
3"+ probabilities are focused across northeast NC into Southeast
VA...but with high ffg values here the risk was kept at marginal.
A slight risk area was added from far northeast TN into far
southwest WV and Southwest VA where ffg values are relatively
lower.  Slow moving cells here Friday afternoon may produce the
best chance of runoff issues across this region.  The hi res
neighborhood exceedance probabilities for 1 and 3 hour ffg values
are well defined in the nam conest 40-70%+ and hi res arw  20-40%
across these areas.

Oravec





Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.t...
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.t...
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.t...


$$




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