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ACUS03 KWNS 020724
SWODY3
SPC AC 020723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2019

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm are possible across portions of the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Expansive upper ridging centered over the Four Corners will remain
in place on Sunday. Some building of this ridge is possible during
the second half of the period into British Columbia and Alberta.
Broad and weak cyclonic flow will persist across the eastern CONUS
while northerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two
features across the central CONUS.

...Northern Plains...Upper Midwest...
A cold front, associated with a shortwave trough and attendant
surface low moving through the Canadian Prairie provinces into
northwest Ontario, is expected to move across the northern Plains
and into the Upper MS Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. A moist
and unstable air mass will likely be in place across the eastern
Dakotas and northern/central MN ahead of this front. Convergence
along the front may be mitigated by veering surface winds but should
still be sufficient for at least isolated thunderstorm development.
Vertical shear will likely be modest but strong instability could
still result in a few severe storms. Uncertainty regarding coverage
precludes higher than 5% probabilities with this forecast.

A related but somewhat separate severe threat will likely
materialize along western portions of the front (i.e. western
Dakotas, far southeast MT, northeast WY). This portion of the front
is expected to stall and the persistent convergence along this
stalled boundary amidst favorable low-level moisture will likely
result in thunderstorm initiation. Where this convergence occurs
remains somewhat uncertain with spatial differences noted in the
medium-range guidance. Mid-level flow will be stronger here than
areas farther east, resulting in stronger vertical shear and a
higher probability for development of severe thunderstorms. Even so,
uncertainty regarding the most favorable area for convective
initiation limits higher than 5% probabilities.

..Mosier.. 08/02/2019

$$


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