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ACUS02 KWNS 020545
SWODY2
SPC AC 020543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2019

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Saturday across
parts of the northern and southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging centered over the Four Corners will remain in place on
Saturday, influencing the sensible weather across much of the
western and central CONUS. Modest flow aloft will exist around this
upper ridging, with westerly flow across the northern High Plains
veering to northerly across the central and southern Plains. Weak
cyclonic flow aloft will persist across the eastern CONUS.

A predominantly nondescript surface pattern is anticipated across
the majority of the CONUS. The only exceptions are across the
northern High Plains, where the tail end of a cold front is expected
to move through Saturday evening, and the southern Plains, where a
low is expected to drift southward across northwest TX.

...Northern Plains...
Despite strong boundary-layer mixing, dewpoints will likely remain
in the low 60s along and east of a lee trough extending from
southeast WY into eastern MT. The approaching cold front will likely
remain west of this region until late Saturday evening and the
stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will be displaced north of
the international border. Even so, convergence along the lee trough
coupled with favorable low-level moisture is expected to result in
isolated thunderstorm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate vertical shear will support an isolated severe threat with
any storms that do develop.

...Southern Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period across eastern OK. Coverage and location of this early
day convection will influence severe potential downstream across
southern OK and northern TX. Current expectation is for this early
day convection to move southwestward under the influence of a
low-amplitude shortwave progressing through eastern OK. As it does,
increasing instability and vertical shear could contribute to
strengthening storms and the potential for a few strong wind gusts.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Mosier.. 08/02/2019

$$


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