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AWUS01 KWNH 020435
FFGMPD
KSZ000-021040-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0699
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1235 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2019

Areas affected......North central to southeast Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020440Z - 021040Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity over the next few hours and will be capable
of producing very heavy rainfall amounts late tonight into the
early morning. A few instances of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar shows showers and thunderstorms
initiating within a low-mid level frontal zone with elevated CAPE
values of 25-500 j/kg across portions of eastern to central KS.
The models indicate a slight increase in the low-mid level jet,
resulting in enhanced moisture transport coming into the region.

The 00z GFS and RAP indicate a band of 2-2.25 inches of
precipitable water is forecast to persist across the region
overnight.  Over the next few hours, the convection will likely
grow upscale into multiple clusters of more organized activity as
700 mb theta-e advection crosses from central to eastern KS
underneath 300 mb divergence.  Ascent is aided by the deep layer
warm/moisture advection across central and eastern KS.

The latest hires model guidance indicates rainfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour. 3-5 inch totals are possibly where activity
persists longer with locally higher amounts.  There is good
agreement on the axis/orientation of the heaviest rain among the
00-01z HRRR and 00z WRF ARW2 and 12z NSSL WRF and 00z National
Blend of Models.
WRF ARW member 2 and the NAM Conus Nest shunted the precip further
north into NE.  The models indicating greater precipitable water
over KS focus higher rainfall amounts over KS, so the solutions
favoring KS were preferred.

Where cells merge and train, then localized flash flooding can
occur. Later this morning trends will need to be monitored for
additional shower/thunderstorm development and the possibility of
rains where heavy rains occurred last night in eastern KS.

Petersen

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39939762 39739629 38859556 37679542 37379657
            38389755 38789878 39039985 39589975 39909882



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