This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1564718114-118394-3808
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 020355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020354
KSZ000-020600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019

Areas affected...Parts of northern/central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 020354Z - 020600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near the
Interstate 70 corridor of central Kansas through 1-3 AM CDT.  It is
possible that this may eventually be accompanied by at least some
increase in potential for strong surface gusts.  It is not clear
that a watch will be needed, but trends will continue to monitored
for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Southerly low-level jet development (including to 30+
kt at 850 mb) is ongoing across the Panhandle region into central
Kansas.  On the nose of this feature, strengthening convergence and
warm advection is forecast to support increasing and focused
large-scale ascent near the Interstate 70 corridor of central Kansas
during the next few hours.  The initiation of scattered thunderstorm
activity already appears underway, and a further increase in
convection is expected as inhibition associated with elevated mixed
layer air erodes.

Deep-layer westerly mean ambient wind fields and shear are generally
weak.  Coupled with relatively warm thermodynamic profiles,
potential for severe hail appears relatively low.  However, with
time, it might not be out of the question that upscale growing
convection could support an expanding and strengthening surface cold
pool, which could eventually be accompanied by increasing potential
for strong surface gusts while tending to propagate southeastward.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39719977 39729732 38619637 38049775 38239859 38739982
            39719977



------------=_1564718114-118394-3808
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1564718114-118394-3808--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)