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AWUS01 KWNH 012119
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-020315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0698
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
516 PM EDT Thu Aug 01 2019

Areas affected...Northeast CO...Western NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012115Z - 020315Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will tend to grow upscale over
the next few hours and will be capable of producing very heavy
rainfall amounts into the evening hours. A few instances of flash
flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES visible satellite imagery shows
showers and thunderstorms initiating along and east of the Front
Range from far southeast WY and western NE down across central CO.
The convection is focusing near the eastern slopes of the terrain
along a quasi-stationary frontal zone, with relatively moist
low-level easterly flow intercepting the front across the High
Plains and driving an axis of stronger surface convergence. This
in conjunction with orographic ascent and a gradually
destabilizing boundary layer has been allowing the convection to
gradually intensify and expand in coverage as it advance off to
the east.

Over the next few hours, the convection will likely grow upscale
into multiple clusters of more organized activity as a weak
shortwave impulse traversing the central Rockies moves east toward
the High Plains and interacts with the peak of diurnal heating and
subsequent surface-based instability. Additionally, the convection
will be encountering an expected uptick in boundary layer moisture
transport from central NE and northern KS given persistent
easterly low-level flow around the north side of a surface low and
frontal zone over west-central KS. In fact, already the last few
hours of 850/700 mb CIRA-LPW data has been showing an increased
concentration of moisture in this layer from southeast WY and
western NE south down across much of eastern CO. Thee added
moisture in addition to facilitating more robust convective
development will also drive an increase in rainfall rates over the
next several hours which are expected to reach as much as 2
inches/hr.

The latest hires model guidance favors as much as 3 to 4 inches of
rain locally across areas of northeast CO and into western NE
going through 03Z with the heaviest amounts focusing where some
cell-merger activity occurs. These amounts may result in a few
areas of flash flooding as a result.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   42410199 42100137 41320084 40540105 40030188
            39190273 39030365 39190446 39570474 40120456
            41010404 42180364 42400297


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