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ACUS11 KWNS 012056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012055
NDZ000-012230-
Mesoscale Discussion 1630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019
Areas affected...western into central North Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012055Z - 012230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts will likely continue
with the ongoing storm cluster for at least the next couple of
hours.
DISCUSSION...Over the past couple of hours, semi-discrete convection
near the MT/ND border has grown upscale into a small, compact MCS,
which has a history of producing at least marginally severe hail and
up to 60 mph wind gusts. These storms continue within a marginally
sheared, but moderately buoyant ambient environment. The MCS appears
to be propagating along a boundary, characterized by a gradient in
surface moisture, which traverses a 925-850 mb moisture axis (per
latest mesoanalysis). Current thinking is that the MCS will remain
latched to the boundary, and will continue to produce isolated
instances of marginally severe hail/wind for at least the next
couple of hours. Thereafter, confidence in the longevity of severe
potential lowers given the overall weak synoptic-scale forcing
across the northern Plains.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
LAT...LON 46920239 47290338 48180315 48130171 47779955 47169865
46759871 46570153 46920239
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