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ACUS11 KWNS 011801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011800
NDZ000-MTZ000-012000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019

Areas affected...Far eastern Montana into western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 011800Z - 012000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may produce occasional severe hail for
brief periods of time. The sparse and brief nature of the severe
threat precludes a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete multicellular convection, with occasional
transient supercell characteristics, has recently developed over the
past hour or so around the MT/ND border. These storms are developing
in association with a small, mid-level shortwave trough ejecting
from the northern High Plains, providing deep-layer ascent to the
region. The ambient atmosphere (via mesoanalysis) is moderately
buoyant in nature, with deep, modest tropospheric lapse rates
contributing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE to the area. As such, some of
the stronger storms may produce at least marginally severe hail.

Nonetheless, peak boundary layer heating/mixing has yet to be
achieved, and the aforementioned convection is likely elevated in
nature. Furthermore, deep-layer shear in the region is relatively
poor, suggesting limited storm organization. As such, the severe
hail threat is expected to be sparse and brief in nature, with the
issuance of a WW unlikely at this time.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   48810282 48490130 48150094 47690111 47460176 47310363
            47420459 47680514 48370477 48850352 48810282



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