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ACUS02 KWNS 011656
SWODY2
SPC AC 011655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHEAST OK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A stout mid-level anticyclone centered over the Four Corners will
move little while a weak 500mb trough is located from the northeast
Gulf Coast into the western Gulf of Mexico.  A belt of moderate to
strong flow will move through the base of a trough over WA/BC/AB.
In the low levels, a stationary boundary modulated by convective
outflow/debris cloudiness will arc from northeast TX into central OK
to a surface low over northwest OK.

...OK/KS vicinity...
A moist boundary layer, evident in surface observations Thursday,
will remain across eastern TX and the eastern halves of OK/KS and
feature surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to lower-mid
70s.  Friday morning, ongoing scattered thunderstorms are forecast
from northeast OK into eastern KS near the boundary.  This early day
activity will likely dissipate by midday before additional storms
develop during the late afternoon.  Strong instability (MLCAPE
2000-3000 J/kg) will develop as the cap weakens amidst a strongly
veering wind profile.  Despite relatively weak flow, strong
directional shear will yield around 25-40kt effective shear.
Isolated severe gusts and large hail may accompany the strongest
cores before storms gradually weaken during the evening hours.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Smith.. 08/01/2019

$$


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