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ACUS48 KWNS 010847
SWOD48
SPC AC 010845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough should move eastward across central Canada and the
north-central CONUS from Day 4/Sunday into Day 5/Monday. Mid-level
west-northwesterly winds will likely strengthen across parts of the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest in this time frame. A moist and
unstable airmass should exist across these regions ahead of a
southward-moving cold front associated with the upper trough. Some
severe potential is evident across the northern Plains on Day
4/Sunday, and parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Midwest on Day 5/Monday. However, substantial differences remain
between deterministic medium-range guidance regarding the evolution
of the upper trough and the corridor of strongest mid-level winds.
Will defer possible inclusion of 15% severe probabilities for either
day to later outlooks pending better model agreement.

Upper ridging will probably persist over the western CONUS from Day
6/Tuesday through the end of the period. An upper trough/low should
also remain over parts of central Canada and Hudson Bay.
Accordingly, northwesterly flow at mid levels between these two
features may become enhanced across much of the Plains into the
upper/mid MS Valley in this time frame. Subtle perturbations
embedded within this northwesterly mid-level flow regime may
encourage convective development each day with at least some MCS
potential. However, far too much uncertainty exists in the placement
of these low-amplitude features to highlight any areas at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/01/2019


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