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AWUS01 KWNH 010815
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-011400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0697
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 AM EDT Thu Aug 01 2019

Areas affected...Eastern KS/far western MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010800Z - 011400Z

Summary...An MCS tracking over areas that received heavy rainfall
late last night and early this morning is expected to result in
additional flash flooding through the morning hours.

Discussion...The GOES-16 clean IR loop showed an MCS dropping
south southeast along an axis of 1000/2000 J/KG of MUCAPE
extending across eastern KS early this morning. Along and ahead of
the path of the MCS, convection deposited between 2.50/3.50 inches
of rain over Jefferson, Douglas and Franklin counties in eastern
KS. Earlier supercells in advance of the MCS dropped between
2.00/3.00 inches of rainfall over portions of Allen and Nesho
counties (per the KTWX radar), though these estimates could be
hail contaminated. These rainfall amounts of close to the three
hour flash flood guidance values.

AS the MCS drops south, following the best instability on the
eastern edge of the mid level capping, it is expected to follow a
similar path to the earlier supercells. The low level jet
continues to pump 1.75/2.00 inch precipitable water air (per GPS
readings and the most recent RAP analysis) along the axis of
instability, and the deep moisture plume can support hourly
rainfall rates near 2.00 inches across southeast KS through
01/12z.

The most recent HRRR runs point to southeast KS for rainfall total
between 2.00/3.00 additional inches of rainfall through that time.
The additional rainfall is expected to initiate flash flooding, as
well as aggravate ongoing flash flooding especially over Allen,
Nesho, Crawford and Cherokee counties before 01/12z. Should the
MCS pass directly over these areas, significant flash flooding is
possible.

The GOES 16 IR loop also indicated bursts of colder cloud tops
just to the north of the MCS position over far northeast KS. This
appears to be in response to short wave energy dropping over the
ridge position on the instability axis. This should result in
additional convection crossing this area, over and just to the
east of areas that received heavy rainfall with the MCS as it was
growing upscale. The most recent HRRR indicated the potential for
an additional 2.00 inches of rainfall with this activity, with
could also aggravate ongoing flooding.

Much of the high resolution guidance (including the most recent
HRRR/RAP) suggest that as the low level jet begins to weaken, and
the elevated instability starts to become consumed, that the MCS
could weaken as it approaches far southwest MO toward 01/12z. As
this occurs, the threat for additional flash flooding is expected
to wane.

Hayes

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OAX...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40059551 39899522 39559502 39279485 37099421
            36779424 36619445 36649486 36879517 37429539
            38929558 39849577 39899577 40029570


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