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ACUS03 KWNS 010730
SWODY3
SPC AC 010728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Saturday across
parts of the northern and southern Plains.

...Northern Plains...
An upper trough will advance eastward across Alberta into
Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Saturday. Although the strongest
mid-level height falls should remain north of the international
border, at least glancing large-scale ascent should overspread parts
of the northern Plains by late Saturday afternoon. A surface
trough/dryline will probably be located across eastern MT into the
western Dakotas Saturday afternoon, and isolated thunderstorms will
probably form as convective inhibition erodes. The strongest
mid-level westerly flow associated with the upper trough may lag to
the west of this convective development, but at least modestly
enhanced winds should begin to overspread the warm sector by early
Saturday evening. The forecast combination of moderate instability
with modest shear should support an isolated severe threat with any
storms that can develop.

...Southern Plains into the Sabine River Valley...
A compact vorticity maximum associated with ongoing storms Saturday
morning will probably located over eastern OK and vicinity at the
start of the period. There appears to be some potential for this
convection to develop southward into a warm/unstable airmass even as
a southwesterly low-level jet weakens through the day.
North-northwesterly mid-level winds overspreading the warm sector
may support updraft organization with storms that could redevelop
across parts of eastern OK into northeast TX through the afternoon.
Some uncertainty exists regarding the location of a convectively
reinforced baroclinic zone across this region. Still, there appears
to be enough agreement amongst guidance in a relatively narrow zone
of severe potential to include 5% severe probabilities.

...Maine...
An upper trough will move eastward across eastern Canada and parts
of the Northeast on Saturday. Winds will strengthen aloft in
association with this trough across ME Saturday afternoon ahead of a
surface cold front. However, low-level moisture is expected to
remain limited, and instability should also be quite weak.
Therefore, severe threat appears low at this time.

..Gleason.. 08/01/2019

$$


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