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ACUS02 KWNS 010558
SWODY2
SPC AC 010558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KS/OK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A vorticity maximum associated with prior convection will probably
be located over NE and northern KS Friday morning. This perturbation
should move southeastward across the central/southern Plains on the
eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Four Corners
region. A weak surface low is forecast to gradually deepen through
peak afternoon heating across the southern High Plains. A
convectively reinforced baroclinic zone should extend from
central/eastern KS into eastern OK.

...Southern/Central Plains...
The strength of the vorticity maximum over the central Plains and
associated mid-level northwesterly winds still remains highly
uncertain. 00Z guidance has generally trended stronger with these
winds aloft, especially the NAM. As ascent attendant to the
mid-level perturbation begins to overspread the surface baroclinic
zone by Friday afternoon, convective initiation across parts of KS
into northern OK may occur. With upper 60s to lower 70s surface
dewpoints expected to remain across the warm sector, strong diurnal
heating should support moderate to perhaps strong instability
developing along/south of the surface boundary by late Friday
afternoon. The placement of this boundary is still uncertain, and
will be dependent on the evolution of mainly elevated convection
ongoing Friday morning across eastern KS into northeastern OK. Even
with these uncertainties, any storm that can develop along/near the
baroclinic zone could become severe given the strengthening winds
aloft, with both large hail and strong to damaging winds possible.
This isolated severe threat may continue into Friday evening across
parts of central/eastern OK as a southwesterly low-level jet
strengthens across this region.

Storms ongoing Friday morning across eastern KS into northeastern OK
should weaken as low-level warm air advection supporting them
gradually diminishes through the mid morning. Still, some guidance
suggests a small cluster of storms survives and subsequently
intensifies across southeastern OK into northeast TX by Friday
afternoon. If this occurs, it would be driven by mesoscale
convective processes and well ahead of large-scale ascent associated
with the previously mentioned vorticity maximum over the central
Plains. This scenario currently appears too uncertain and
conditional to include 5% severe probabilities farther south.

...Northern Rockies...
A positively tilted shortwave trough will advance northeastward from
the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia and Alberta through the
period. Glancing ascent attendant to this upper trough should
encourage at least isolated storms to develop across parts of the
northern Rockies by Friday afternoon. Even through mid-level
southwesterly winds should modestly strengthen across this region,
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite meager. This will
probably limit an organized severe threat.

...Elsewhere...
Generally weak flow will likely limit severe potential with
thunderstorms that form Friday across parts of the northern Plains,
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, and the central/southern
Rockies.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Gleason.. 08/01/2019

$$


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