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ACUS11 KWNS 010457
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010457
KSZ000-010700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 010457Z - 010700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Vigorous thunderstorm activity may continue to develop
across parts of eastern Kansas overnight and could pose at least
some continuing risk for severe hail and wind.  It is not clear that
a watch is needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for the
possibility of increasing severe wind potential overnight.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous ongoing thunderstorm development (in a
corridor southwest of Falls City NE into areas north of Bartlesville
OK) coincides with a zone of enhanced warm advection focused roughly
around the 700 mb level.  This is near the eastern edge of warmer
and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer, beneath the eastern
periphery of a prominent mid-level subtropical high centered over
the central High Plains.

Although deep-layer northwesterly mean ambient flow is rather
modest, there appears sufficient turning with height to support
strong shear, mainly for isolated storms developing and becoming
rooted closer to the boundary layer, to the southwest of the warm
advection convection.  In the presence of moderately large CAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg, the stronger storms may continue to pose a risk
for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

Severe weather potential into the 06-09Z time frame may remain
isolated enough that a watch is not necessary.  However, as a
nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet (30-40 kt at 850
mb) across the Panhandle region into central Kansas gradually veers
to an increasing southwesterly component, warm advection and
convergence on the nose of this feature may support new development
to the west/southwest of ongoing storms.  A consolidation of
activity into an upscale growing, organizing convective system,
which could eventually pose an increasing risk for strong surface
gusts, might not be out of the question later tonight.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39759695 39669547 38099468 37069556 37359630 38339677
            38909741 39759695



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