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ACUS11 KWNS 010302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010301
NDZ000-010430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Areas affected...Parts of northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548...

Valid 010301Z - 010430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storm development may linger
through 11 PM-Midnight CDT, but severe weather potential, in
general, appears in the process of diminishing.  A new severe
weather watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Objective analysis indicates a lingering corridor of
large mixed-layer CAPE near the North Dakota/Manitoba border area.
This is along the remnant corridor of stronger daytime heating,
within the pre-frontal surface trough, which may remain the primary
focus for any possible new storm development or continuing
propagation of ongoing widely scattered thunderstorm development
through 03-05Z.  This includes the right-moving supercell now
crossing the international border, north/northwest of Langdon ND,
and storms along the northward/northeastward advancing outflow now
near/north of Minot.  While the environment remains supportive of
storms capable of posing a risk for severe hail and strong surface
gusts, this threat is expected to gradually diminish by or shortly
after 04-05Z, as convection wanes with continuing loss of daytime
heating.

..Kerr.. 08/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48950130 49440000 49429903 48959835 48520011 48520089
            48950130



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