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ACUS11 KWNS 312051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312051
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-312315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Areas affected...Extreme eastern Montana...western North
Dakota...extreme northwest South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 312051Z - 312315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop over the next few
hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat. Convective trends are being monitored for a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level vort max, currently traversing southern
Montana, is approaching the northern High Plains, where ample
buoyancy and relatively minimal convective inhibition is already in
place. As insolation continues and the aforementioned vort max
impinges on the discussion area, convective inhibition will further
decrease, and adequate deep-layer ascent will overspread the region
to support convective initiation and sustenance. Up to 2500 J/kg
MLCAPE has already been noted across western ND, and with near 70F
dewpoints slowly advecting westward into the area, buoyancy may
increase further. Given steep low- and mid-level lapse rates in
place, along with adequate low-level directional and deep-layer
speed shear (contributing to nearly straight hodographs), severe
multicell and splitting supercellular structures are likely to
result from the stronger updrafts. These storms will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and large hail, including a couple
significant (2+ inch) stones given the deep layer of steep lapse
rates and associated CAPE profile.

Still, large scale ridging is in place, with the primary lifting
mechanisms being diurnal heating and a small embedded vort max.
Questions remain regarding storm coverage and as such, convective
trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46670479 48040478 48990416 48840251 48350174 47720172
            46930189 45850262 45480308 45480323 45370378 45580449
            46180483 46670479



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