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ACUS11 KWNS 312049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312049
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-312315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming...extreme southeast
Montana...extreme western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 312049Z - 312315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to potentially scattered storm development is
likely over the next couple of hours. A few storms may produce
damaging wind gusts and perhaps large hail. Given expected sparse
severe coverage, a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Agitated CU have recently shown signs of supporting
convective initiation over the past couple of hours along the higher
terrain of central into eastern WY (given ample diurnal heating and
a mid-level vort max glancing the region to the north). Storms are
expected to initiate in the next couple of hours and move off of the
higher terrain into mainly northeastern Wyoming, where more
low-level moisture (near 60F surface dewpoints) and subsequent
buoyancy (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) are present. Deep-layer speed
shear is in place, with up to 45 knots of bulk effective shear
noted, but with relatively poor low-level shear, supportive of
multicellular clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two.
Latest RAP forecast soundings depict a well-mixed boundary layer
(with steep sfc-3km lapse rates) extending up to 600 mb across much
of the area, indicative of a damaging wind threat. With at least
modest mid-level lapse rates in place (7+ C/km), at least marginally
severe hail is also possible.

Given the large scale ridging (and overall subsidence), and modest
kinematic/thermodynamic fields in place, the severe threat is
expected to be relatively isolated in nature, and a WW issuance is
not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   42570462 42760648 43350715 44500712 45200541 45140359
            43210337 42570462



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