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AWUS01 KWNH 010236
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-010800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0696
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1035 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Areas affected...Eastern KS/western MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010230Z - 010800Z

Summary...Convection training along the edge of the mid level cap
over eastern KS and western MO could pose a flash flood threat
into the early morning hours.

Discussion...Regional radars showed a northwest/southeast oriented
axis of convection extending from southeast NE across eastern KS
this evening. The convective line is located northeast of the
surface warm front over central and southeast KS, in an ribbon of
500-1000 J/KG of MUCAPE (per 00z soundings at OAX and TOP), along
the eastern edge of the mid level capping. Along the instability
axis, the GOES 16 clean IR looped showed cooling tops extending
across much of eastern KS.

Thus far, with the convection mostly elevated, hourly rainfall
rates (from the KTWX radar) have generally been less than 1.25
inches. However, given the orientation of the convective band,
training along the edge of the cap (in an ribbon of 1.50/1.75 inch
precipitable water air), rainfall amounts through 01/05z could
approach 2.50 inches over eastern KS. Three hour flash flood
guidance values here are generally above 2.50 inches, so while the
convection is mainly rooted above the surface, the flash flood
threat slowly ramps up.

As short wave energy over western NE this evening tracks along
the ridge position, it is expected to provide synoptic scale
ascent after 01/05z. The lift could aid in focusing the convection
along the mid level capping, resulting in a more focused area of
storms. Between 01/05z and 01/08z, the threat for flash flooding
increases, as the strengthening low level flow transports 2.00
inch precipitable water air (which is about two standard
deviations above the mean) from the Lower MS Valley into eastern
KS.

Hourly rainfall rates could jump to near 2.00 inches clusters of
repeating storms affecting eastern KS and far western MO between
01/05z and 01/08z. The flash flood threat increases during this
window, with the most recent HRRR showing local 3.00/4.00 inch
rainfall here. The threat of flash flooding could continue beyond
01/08z as the mid level lift crosses the instability axis into
southwest MO.

Hayes

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39989565 39869531 39649509 39419484 39359480
            38329420 37779431 38039486 39209579 39439593
            39819594


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