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AWUS01 KWNH 010111
FFGMPD
AZZ000-010410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0695
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
910 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Areas affected...eastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010110Z - 010410Z

Summary...Training convection producing hourly rainfall rates near
1.50 inches could pose a flash flood threat into the evening
hours.

Discussion...Regional radars across eastern AZ showed convection
developing in an axis of 500-1000 J/KG of SBCAPE (observed in the
00z soundings at FGZ and ABQ) extending across Navajo and Apaches
counties. The GOES 17 clean IR loop indicated bursts of colder
cloud tops with this activity (with cloud top temperatures near
-70 C), and despite the general lack of forcing, the convection is
maintaining itself with new updrafts replacing old ones along the
line.

The storms are moving northward along a gradient of precipitable
water between 1.00/1.25 inches), and the deep moisture is
resulting in hourly rainfall rates near 1.50 inches over southern
Navajo and southern Greenlee counties, which exceeds one hourly
flash flood guidance for these counties. The KFSX does indicate
the presence of hail in the HCA product, but the sounding at FGZ
showed a fairly moist column through at least 500 mb), indicating
that hail contamination may not be much of a factor in the radar
rainfall estimates.

The axis of instability is expected become exhausted or become
elevated over eastern AZ before 01/04z (per the most recent HRRR
and RAP soundings), which should result in a lessening of the
flash flood threat. Before that time, hourly rainfall rates
between 1.00 and 1.50 inches does pose a flash flood threat. The
limiting factor for a more organized threat is the convective
coverage, and the expected rapid depletion of instability into the
evening hours.  Based on the above, flash flooding is considered
possible.

Hayes

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...

LAT...LON   36140946 34140940 33760948 33670968 33810994
            34081008 34751020 35211023 36041002


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