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ACUS01 KWNS 010057
SWODY1
SPC AC 010055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Areas of strong to severe storms remain possible over the northern
Plains this evening and overnight.

...01Z Update...

...Northern Plains...
Severe thunderstorm threat persists across the northern Plains,
primarily across western ND where Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548
remains in effect. In this area, convergence along the pre-frontal
trough will continue to support storm development amidst moderate
buoyancy and vertical shear. Large hail and/or strong wind gusts are
possible within the most robust storms. Farther southwest (northeast
WY), steep mid-level lapse rates and resulting buoyancy will support
thunderstorms for the next several hours. Isolated hail and strong
wind gusts are possible with the strongest/most persistent storms.

...Central Plains...
Recent surface analysis placed a low over southeast CO with a warm
front extending eastward into north-central K and then southeastward
through eastern KS. Nocturnal low-level jet is expected to result in
warm-air advection across this frontal zone this evening and
overnight. Mid-level lapse rates will remain steep enough for enough
elevated buoyancy to support a few strong thunderstorms. Some
isolated hail is possible.

...Mid-Atlantic and eastern New England...
Scattered thunderstorms continue across the region, with the highest
coverage of storms currently across southern ME and central PA. A
strong wind gust or two is possible within the line across ME but
the threat elsewhere appears to be less than 5%.

..Mosier.. 08/01/2019

$$


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