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ACUS11 KWNS 312335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312335
NDZ000-010100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Areas affected...Parts of western/northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548...

Valid 312335Z - 010100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548
continues.

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development
appears likely to continue through this evening across parts of
western and northern North Dakota, perhaps impacting the Minot area
by around 9 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and strong
surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...Mid/upper support for convective development appears
generally weak to negligible, but areas of locally enhanced
convergence along the surface trough, near/east of the axis of
stronger daytime heating, has been sufficient to support widely
scattered ongoing vigorous thunderstorm activity across western
North Dakota.  This is occurring in the presence of weak
west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow, but veering of winds with
height is contributing to modest shear, in the presence of large
mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.

Attempts at new storm development are still ongoing within the
narrow instability axis extending northeastward and
east-northeastward across the Minot vicinity, through the central
North Dakota international border area into south central Manitoba.
This will probably persist into the 02-04Z time frame.

Storms may not propagate far away from the surface
trough/instability axis, with motions tending to deviate strongly
from the mean flow within the instability axis, likely aided by
dynamics associated updraft rotation in right moving storms and
convergence along northeastward surging segments of outflow in left
moving storms.  This latter process may support development of
stronger convection into the Minot area by around 02Z, accompanied
by a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49399837 48280081 47260231 46170317 47180354 48150286
            49070170 49460003 50219830 49399837



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